The future of storage

Soon, a friend and co-technologist will post about the world of digital storage. He'll detail recent advancements, as well as where we are headed in the next five to ten years.

In the meantime, I would like to discuss an recent article written by Mike Shatzkin from Idea Logical co. In the article, he describes what he thinks will happen to publishing and books in 20 years

Overall, I agree with Mr. Shatzkin.  He points out that traditional publishers will be forced to adapt to a future populace that will be online. Users will have higher-speed access to everything digital. They'll use flat, folding displays, some without keyboards, some wearable, etc. A science fiction wonderland. All news, fiction, and non-fiction publishing will be on-line and in digital format.

But there is one thing I disagree with him on. He says, "I’d expect that 20 years from now, the “local” hard drive will be relatively unimportant: a relatively short-term “emergency” cache for the rare moments when you aren’t easily connected to the network (the internet.) Data — all data, including everything you think you “own” — will live in “the cloud.”

After pondering on this, then discussing it with other technology geeks like myself, I disagree heartily.

First, I should mention what I agree with him on:

Mr. Shatzkin refers to future "clouds" or networks. These are the common data centers of today, and, in the future, will continue to be rows and rows of solid-state or molecular-state storage cold-rooms. All forms of entertainment:  movies, You-Tube style video, eBooks, and down-loadable software will be out there. Just like it is today. Capacity will increase, but overall data-centers will remain similar. Also, we will continue to see a "leasing" of storage space like you can now with Yahoo!, Google, etc.

But, Mr. Shatzkin's theorizes that the local hard drive will become relatively unimportant. My qualms with that are twofold: privacy and throughput.

Here are the reasons for my disagreement:

1. Distrust and Privacy:
The human race is distrusting by nature... and justifiably so. I'm not confident people will trust of their personal data to be stored elsewhere.  When we hear that Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg and staff  do not believe in privacy, it's easy to see why.

Depending on their business sector, some companies will never go to an all-networking storage. Sure, employees of today and tomorrow store and back-up mass amounts of data via the network. Working copies, however, usually exist on local drives. The more cutting-edge, sensitive, or confidential the work...the more there's a need to keep it local.  

Think of it this way:  Imagine writing an entire novel and "saving" it online using Google's online word processing software. Considering their track record on privacy... would you put it out there? Would you honestly trust it to remain private and safe, and be there when you want it? 

2. Networking bandwidth.
Bandwidth rates to households is growing. But that rate is not doubling every 1.5 years like CPU processing power. Computers and gaming systems continue to crunch data far faster than they can receive it via a (sometimes unreliable) network. Unless this trend reverses itself, local computing will continue to outperform networking throughput. This requires a local storage.

3. Computer games.
In 20 years, games will be 3D in nature or holographic. Like today, gamers will play on-line. The size of the games will continue to drastically increase, not decrease.  Even online games like World of Warcraft are downloaded to local hard drives. The popular Final Fantasy XIII is over 35GB in size on the PS3. This game wouldn't have fit on the average hard drive ten years ago.

4. Video
Advancements in high-definition video continue to stun even a technology geek such as myself. The file sizes continue to grow, stressing the abilities of networking throughput. This means local storage is required. Sure, you can download a standard DVD, but ever try downloading a Blu-Ray?  The movies are now at least 20GB. That's 160Gb of data. Even if you're getting a consistent 5Mb download, which most don't today, that's still about 10 hours.

This blog isn't meant to criticize Mr. Shatzkin, as I found his article fascinating and agree with much of what he wrote. But until networking technology surpass the rate at which graphics and local processing power is being developed, I don't foresee the local hard drive going away in twenty years. The local storage drives will just just look very, very different.

I could be wrong... in 20 years we shall see.
~John Kurt

The real iPad

Today we look at the iPad.

It's wonderful! It's amazing! Its... going to save the publishing industry!! Okay, now that we've consumed the Kool-Aid, we'll move on to a more real view.

Since this blog attempts to focus on writing and publishing...and how technology affects it, we'll discuss the iPad as a reader. We'll start with the iPad's display, which is a capacitive-touch LCD, back-lit by LED technology. 

Say what?? Well, that means it is very similar to a touch-screen tablet or laptop PC. That also means that it will be harder on your eyes than an e-ink technology reader. Although the WSJ disagrees, I do not. I stare at LCD monitors all day for work. It tires my eyes in ways that ink-and-paper does not. E-ink technology, as Gizmodo puts it, "it's an arrangement of pixels on a screen like you would draw on an Etch-a-Sketch." It uses ambient light to highlight the black-on-white paper which many think is the reason its easier to read from. The good news for iPad fans is the next-generation of iPad will include OLED technology, which allows for higher contrast ratio between black and white coloring.

The iPad is made up of a very similar motherboard one can find in the iTouch. It's got an Apple A4 CPU (ARM based A8), Samsung DDR SDram, Broadcom BCM4329 a/b/g/n bluetooth/wifi, and a larger battery than the iTouch. This means the innards are not cutting edge by any stretch. Compared to the Kindle, Nook and Sony reader, the battery life is far shorter, even though it's estimated to only draw 2.5 watts (that's crazy low).  On the other hand, the iPad can do other cool things... like the thousands of apps made for it.

The overall cost to manufacture the iPad is around $230-$340.00. You pay twice that or more because, after all, Apple does have to pay their software engineers, manufacturing, procurement and other personnel.

Sadly, Apple chose to limit you to a lifetime-limit of purchases.  Quite an odd decision, no?

~John Kurt

E-Reading – The Portable Media has Arrived.

We've all heard the horror stories of writers attempting to get their work published, so today, we'll discuss the rush of technological advances coming for many of them...focusing on e-readers.

An example of what's approaching for book publishing, is what's already transformed the newspaper and magazine industries. Many newspaper and magazines have going through a radical transformation. Some have even embraced the change. There are a number of new web based technologies that offer not only the ability to read articles through a web browser, but real interactive content with the ability to physically “turn the page” as if to thumb through a book. They don't just offer content to your PC but offer real portability across different operating systems and devices.

Here is some e-reading software to get to know and love:

• Zinio – I've been a long time user and fan of Zinio. They recently released a copy of their software for the iPad. They have a web interface that runs almost as slick as the desktop application.
  
• Izmoreader – An online reader from IzmoMedia that allows publishers to produce video and audio alongside their print providing a richer more interactive experience.
  
• Fastflip -A Google product currently in the labs that I think everyone should keep their eye on. At present it puts tons of popular magazines in a gallery layout that you can use contextual browsing (thumb through it) to find what you want to read then click on that to zoom in and see it. The reason I bring this into view is that Google has tirelessly been scanning books for the past few years.
  
• Instapaper – The makers of instapaper built a site that was specifically intended for the Kindle e-reader and have continuously expanded their offering for the  iphone and ipad as well. The premise is simple you can find what you want to read, mark it to read later and tell it what device you want to read it on. Very simple and user friendly.
  
• Aldiko e-reader – I have to add Aldiko because, I am not an iphone user and loving it. This reader is currently only for smart phones running the Android operating system. I love this program! I've ready a few books now on it and it offers features much like the Kindle where you can adjust the contrast of the background that's easier on the eyes when you read. They have a massive catalog available and for us geeks, the entire O'Riely catalog of computer books.
  
• Scrollbox.org – An online library that is web based and will run in most all smart phones. You have access to the Project Gutenberg library which has thousands of ebooks available.
  
• Kobobooks - Tons of ebooks and they have a reader for almost every device.
  
• Barnes and Noble – In an effort to compete in the ebook space of Amazon's Kindle, B&N has created the Nook. However, to get you totally hooked on the ebook and the Nook, they have produced e-readers for most smartphones and PC/Mac as well. Their catalog of course is nothing less than outstanding with very current releases.
  

There is a push for devices to provide convenience for the reader. The ipad easily comes to mind, smart phones are getting smarter, tablet PCs with Android OS's already in production.  Portability will be the key, being able to have what you want, when you want it, but especially where you want it.  The tipping point for online publishing is not on its way. The question is: what will the Big Six do to embrace and encourage the change?

Michael D. Donahoe, PMP
TOPSweb, LLC

Weekend Technology Roundup.

Ah the weekend... the time to round up the cool technology news.

Here's an interesting line-item comparison of iPad vs. Kindle (2) vs. Nook. Here's another comparison by CNET, who I respect.  Many of the CNET and other forums summarize the iPad as wonderful for a portable, larger multimedia device (large iTouch).  But if you want a dedicated reader, one whose battery life is 1-2 weeks (opposed to iPad of 1-2 days), then you go with the easier to read Kindle 2 or other E-INK reader.

Because Kindle application has been on the iPhone and iTouch for so long, David Carnoy wonders if the iPad will actually increase sales for Kindle and Amazon in general.

For writers and other office workers: If you're interested in an exceptional Office program, but don't want to front the money for Microsoft Office, then OpenOffice 3.2 is for you.  It has everything you need, at the price you need it: FREE.  Yes, it's free. It's available on Linux, Windows, and MacOS.  It's now up to version 3.2, having been downloaded 100 million times, so many of the bugs have been ironed out.

Speaking of Linux...if you're seeking a wonderful, easy-to-use operating system: Ubuntu' latest version 10.04 (Lucid Lynx) is out. Download it from here, which is a .iso file, burn that to CD and you can install the (free) OS from there. I'm using it and it's fantastic.

Dell has leaked some new cell phones (and probably another eReader with them).  The Dell Thunder.
Here's some other leaked phones from Dell.

Microsoft has a software eBook Reader. Rumor has it they delayed their split-down-the-middle hardware reader due to battery life issues. Perhaps it'll release for the Christmas shopping rush.

A poor software engineer at Apple abandoned his prototype iPhone 4 with OS 4 laying around a bar. Oops.

I came across quite an interesting comparison... this graph shows the number of unique visitors for three websites: Digg vs. NY Times vs. WSJ.  One would think the last two would lead, but alas, no.  Another sign that the world's wants and needs are changing.


And, that's it folks. The (English Premier League) Manchester United v. Tottenham is on, so I'm off.

And then there's Tor...

I've spent a couple posts bashing on John Sargent and Macmillan Publishing. So today, I'll try to swing the other direction... and for a good reason.

From the fantasy front of publishing and novels, I'd like to point out that Macmillian publishes the Wheel of Time series under their subsidiary publisher; TOR / Forge.  The Wheel of Time series creator, Robert Jordan (or James Oliver Rigney, Jr. in real life), is considered one of the most skilled authors in recent times. If you don't know the very sad story of Mr. Jordan's untimely departure, you can read it on his wikipedia site.

I just finished the latest book in the series, which Brandon Sanderson picked up after Jordan passed away... and discovered as many have, the latest book is nothing short of amazing. Bravo Mr. Sanderson!

In addition to throwing a bone to Macmillan (or Tor really), I also recently read a two-month-old post from Sci-fi author John Scalzi about how, in the whole Macmillan vs. Amazon bout, Amazon could have performed far, far better. His points are quite damning.

It was also interesting to learn that it was Jan Friedman, ex CEO of Harper Collins, who began Open Road Integrated Media... a company who will focus primarily on eBooks, particularly older ones. It's old news, but still, her quote on electronic formats; “is going to be the center of the universe." 

Exactly. She's a businesswoman who seems to understand technology and the future.

And speaking of electronic format, I found this website quite interesting: Free-ebooks.net

The eBook - Publishing troubles

Tonight we tackle some issues in the very interesting New Yorker article about the iPad, Kindle, eBooks and the publishing industry. It's quite a long article, (6000 words!).. so we’ll summarize some concerning points.

Ken Auletta begins speaking with a facetious tone about how so many worshiped the iPad release. His quote, "The industry’s great hope was that the iPad would bring electronic books to the masses—and help make them profitable. E-books are booming." As he indicates, the problem is that so many in the industry were "hoping" for a solution.  

But, that is the problem itself. As most successful business know, it is the publishers that should be knowledgeable of the dilemma (coming e-commerce and eBooks), and then providing a solution to that problem themselves. The iPad, while a marketing wonder, is simply an iTouch with a larger screen and battery. Seriously. I'll give details in later blog. 

What the iPad won't do, is stop the publishing industry from heading toward the eBook and e-commerce chasm. It will not hold back future copying, trading, and eventually, the downfall of modern-day decision-making... which was originally based on putting the best quality books on a limited, physical "shelf space." 

The article then mentions Steve Jobs taking on Amazon and the Kindle, then continues on about how John Sargent (CEO of Macmillan) played hardball with Amazon to fight for their "agency model" and price setting.

But, was it good for authors? Will it be beneficial in the long-term for publishing companies to play tough with Amazon, the very company who garnered gobs of income on back-listed books? Amazon, who has successfully sold so many novels to many around the world? 

Lets look at the price. Something felt wrong about the "increased" pricing that MacMillian "won" against Amazon. Does that money really translate to profits for the authors... or just good for publishers (in the short term)? I did some research, and discovered my gut feel was correct. Michael Stackpole (a NY Times best selling fantasy author) says NO. The author is clearly loses in this. Here's his article.

Finally, near the end of the New Yorker article, he mentions how the publishing industry won their battle (so far) against Google copying and digitizing everyone’s books.  I applaud this win, for I agree Google was wrong. But, Google then announced Google Editions, which will be an on-line service to download eBooks. 

Yeah!... er… wait:

Quote, “the store’s e-books, unlike those from Amazon or Apple, will be accessible to users on any device.”

Bingo.

To any nerd (and there's millions) "any device" means: standard format, easily copied, easily traded, easily… well you get the point.  This can be wonderful for new authors, but not so wonderful for the big publishers.

But don’t just take my word on it. 

A simple Google search found others agreeing with me on some and other points: MarketWatch. Harvard Business Review.

LOST: a blog entry

I was supposed to post last night on a New Yorker article about eBooks, eCommerce and the publishing industry, but... alas... LOST was on.  Zoikes, I'm addicted to that show.

On the subject of writing and fantasy, I did manage to find a few minutes to post up a fantasy short-story I wrote onto SFFworld.com:  Here's the story, "The Bastard Son." 

Free? Becuase of the digital age?

Over half a year ago, Macmillan CEO John Sargent said the publishing industry is “...at the stage of the music industry just before file-sharing,”

I couldn't agree more. The question is: what are they doing about it?

In the Publisher's Weekly article that summarized the panel from which I took the quote, one gets the impression they're unaware of which direction to head.  A clear example of this uncertainty is how (according to the article), Mr. Sargent didn't see the value in "subscription" or "ongoing serviceable customer relationships."

Really? Because books are considered one-off sales? If his theory for the future were true, then Audible.com should not be a financial success. They're a subscription based digital-format book company. Are they loosing money? If so, why did Amazon buy 87% of it's share in mid 2009?  

Here's another interesting statement from that article: Sargent apparently thinks books are different because they require a significant investment of time and attention from the consumer. (Unlike a magazine or music).

Another shocking statement, indeed.

Here's my rebuttal:  Computer Games require anywhere from 10 to 100's of investment hours by the consumer. One could easily say they require far more time (per game) than a novel. World of Warcraft, for example. Before, games were one-off sales. Nowadays, large computer game success stories are now... subscription based.

The Publishing Industry must realize they cannot think like they have in the past 100 years. The consumer will leave them behind if they do. Gary Hoenig, general manager and editorial director of ESPN Publishing, had it right; they will end up like GM if they aren't careful.

Warning: Don't put ALL your stock in Apple...

Marc Maiffret is a 29 year old security super genius.  Okay, maybe I'm being too kind, but overall the guy knows how to make waves in the realm of hacking and computer security.  He's the Chief Security Architect of a computer company, FireEye, which he co-founded. The guy was even named in People Magazine's 30 people under 30.  Basically, he's a guru on computer security.

But... what does this have to do with technology and the writing / publsihing world?  Plenty.

As many have noticed, Apple computers are everywhere.  iPad, iPhone, iTouch, MacBooks, oh my.  The mob (uh... including myself) has snatched up these technology marvels and now the iPad is widely considered the premier eBook reader. It is setting standards everywhere.

The reason I mention Marc Maiffret?  Well, in a recent interview, he claimed the following about Apple:

"It's even a little scarier with them because they try to market themselves as more secure than the PC, that you don't have to worry about viruses, etc. Anytime there's been a hacking contest, within a few hours someone's found a new Apple vulnerability. If they were taking it seriously, they wouldn't claim to be more secure than Microsoft because they are very much not. And the Apple community is pretty ignorant to the risks that are out there as it relates to Apple."

Looks like everyone, including many snatching up the iPad for eBook wonder, have to be careful of the technical security holes that come with them.

A classic example of old and new

I was browsing around the web and came across an article that struck me as a clear example of the coming conflict between old-school and cutting edge technology.

John Scalzi is a successful novelist of science fiction, as well as having written some non-fiction titles. In his recent blog post, he mentions how he was sent an advanced review copy (or ARC as they're called) by EOS. The problem: it was a request to read the electronic copy of the novel.  His response: no thank you. Then he created a blog post titled, "eARCs: Big Fat Publicity Fail."

If you read his post, linked above, you'll find he was quite perturbed they would ask him to go so far out of his way in order to review one of their books.

I predict plenty more of this in the coming years.  The old: those who refuse to let go of the feel of a good book in our hands... and the new: fans of electronic reading.  Until ebook readers have been lowered in cost to the sub-$100 dollar range, I don't foresee them being as abundant as some would like.

I'll sue if you dont marry me...

I received an email from a friend, which debated my statement, "Before, cutting-edge technology and the writing industry were rarely seen hanging out."  We ended up discussing the inventions that have been derived from modern Publishing. The truth is, compared to other industries; publishing hasn't generated many advanced technologies.

So today, we'll look at the creator of the publishing industry: The Printing Press.

Circa 1440 AD, in Strasbourg, Germany, a crafty and often sued gentlemen named Johannes Gutenberg invented the mechanized printing press. There is little doubt, from a historical context, that this was the true beginning of the Publishing Industry. It also aided and began many other advancements of science and technology.

Mr. Gutenberg, who later published the Gutenberg Bible, redefined the way we produced written thought. Prior to his creativity, copying (without giving credit to author) was rampant, mistakes and mistranslations were widespread as everything was done by hand.

Ironically, three to four years before Mr. Gutenberg invented the printing press, he was sued by a woman named Ennelin. She took him to court, claiming he had promised her marriage. Great inventions that create a whole industry, and... men making promises they can't keep.

Some things never change do they? :)

~John Kurt.

The first, of many...

If a blogger posts something on the web, and there's no one there to read it... is it really a blog?...Hello?

Greetings and Salutations.

This is the first of many posts for a new blog where I and others will attempt to merge the world of writing (novels and short stories), the publishing industry, and the vast and complicated world of technology. 

Before, cutting-edge technology and the writing industry were rarely seen hanging out. But as you have most likely noticed, these worlds are colliding in a big way. Here, we will attempt to seek answers to the great mysteries of writing, publishing and new technology. How they all relate, how they will work together, and how they will conflict with one another.

I hope you enjoy.  Thank you for reading this first post.

~John Kurt.